Here’s what we all already know: the current top five (Melbourne, St George Illawarra, Manly, Brisbane and North Queensland) are safe – baring a salary cap scandal, they will be there in September.
Equally set in stone is the fate of the bottom four teams (Gold Coast, Sydney, Canberra and Parramatta). Mad Monday celebrations and end-of-season-trips are being planned, knives are being sharpened in boardrooms and browbeaten fans are already waiting for kick-off in 2012.
That leaves seven teams – the Warriors, Wests Tigers, Newcastle, Penrith, the Bulldogs, Sharks and South Sydney - that could go either way. They could be sunning it up in Phuket come September or they could be fighting for their very lives in the NRL’s hellish postseason cauldron.
Some simple maths: seven into three won’t go.
And for all the calculations and equations, only one matters; the minimum number of points needed to finish in the top eight.
This blogs sees three teams (Newcastle, the Panthers and Bulldogs) finishing on most pundits’ magic number, 28, setting up one of the most thrilling climaxes in NRL history.
The cruellest thing is that 28 points will only be enough for ONE team to advance to the postseason, with points differential making the difference.
Newcastle will earn the nod after racking up big victories against the woeful Gold Coast and underachievers Canberra and Souths.
Penrith will win four of their last six matches, but their weaker points differential means they will be in the stands when the play-offs start.
The Bulldogs will also come home with a wet sail, winning four of six, but they will be made to pay the ultimate price for their horrid mid-season form.
At the other end of the play-off picture, Melbourne will win their first minor premiership since 2008 despite losses to fellow heavyweights St George Illawarra and Manly in the dying stages of the regular season.
Joining them on 40 points will be the Brisbane Broncos, the only team in the comp to go six-from-six to finish the season
The Dragons will be just one point behind after a round 26 upset against the luckless Panthers.
Manly will head into the playoffs nursing some wounds after winning only three of their final six matches to finish fourth on 38 points.
North Queensland will hold onto fifth place despite winning just twice in the final month-and-a-half, mainly due to the prolonged absence of Thurston.
Wests and the Warriors will finish on 30 points after winning three and four matches respectively.
Elsewhere, the slim play-off hopes of the Sharks and Rabbitohs will be snuffed out at the earliest possible opportunity, with both clubs to suffer terminal losses this weekend.
Melbourne Storm, 34pts
Run home: Eels (a), Panthers (h), Titans (a), Dragons (h), Manly (a), Easts (h)
How they’ll go: Will lose to the Dragons and Manly, but do enough to win the minor premiership.
Crunch clash: v Dragons, round 24
Prediction: 1st, 40 points
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, 32 points
Run home: Wests (h), Easts (h), Eels (a), Bulldogs (h), Storm (h), Broncos (a)
How they’ll go: Only three wins from six, but a heartening win over the Storm at Fortress Brookvale.
Crunch clash: v Melbourne, round 25
Prediction: 4th, 38 points
St George Illawarra, 29 points
Run home: Souths (h), Wests (h), Roosters (h), Storm (a), Warriors (h), Panthers (h)
How they’ll go: Only a last-round loss to a desperate Penrith costs the Dragons a third straight JJ Giltinan Shield.
Crunch clash: v Melbourne, round 24
Prediction: 3rd, 39 points
Brisbane Broncos, 28 points
Run home: Sharks (h), Warriors (h), Cowboys (a), Knights (a), Souths (h), Manly (h)
How they’ll go: The only team in the league to go a perfect six-from-six into the finals series. How that serves them in September and beyond remains to be seen.
Crunch clash: v Cowboys, round 23
Prediction: 2nd, 40 points
North Queensland, 28 points
Run home: Panthers (h), Bulldogs (a), Broncos (h), Souths (a), Sharks (h), Warriors (h)
How they’ll go: Missed Thurtson down the stretch, but a season-closing, three-game winning streak coincides with the return of the master halfback.
Crunch clash: v Broncos, round 23
Prediction: 5th, 32 points
Warriors, 24 points
Run home: Raiders (h), Broncos (a), Knights (h), Panthers (a), Dragons (a), Cowboys (h)
How they’ll go: Beat the teams they should have beat, lost to the ones they should have lost too.
Crunch clash: v Knights, round 23
Prediction: 6th, 30 points
Wests Tigers, 22 points
Run home: Manly (a), Dragons (h), Panthers (a), Eels (h), Titans (h), Sharks (a)
How they’ll go: Munched on some easy meat in the final three rounds to ensure they made the postseason.
Crunch clash: v Panthers, Round 23
Prediction: 7th, 30 points
Newcastle Knights, 22 points
Run home: Titans (h), Raiders (h), Warriors (h), Broncos (h), Bulldogs (a), Souths (h)
How they’ll go: Big wins over the woeful Titans, Raiders and Bunnies ensure Newcastle have the points difference to qualify in eighth spot.
Crunch clash: v Warriors, Round 23
Prediction: 8th, 28 points
Penrith Panthers, 20 points
Run home: Cowboys (a), Storm (a), Wests (h), Warriors (h), Raiders (a), Dragons (a)
How they’ll go: A final round win over the Dragons won’t be enough for the Panthers after a hard end to the season.
Crunch clash: v Wests, Round 23
Prediction: 9th, 28 points
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 18 points
Run home: Easts (a), Cowboys (h), Sharks (a), Manly (a), Knights (h), Raiders (a)
How they’ll go: Resurrected pride with four wins from six, but left their run just a little too late.
Crunch clash: v Cowboys, Round 22
Prediction: 10th, 28 points
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks, 18 points
Run home: Broncos (a), Titans (h), Bulldogs (h), Easts (a), Cowboys (h), Wests (h)
How they’ll go: Exposed over the season’s final furlong. Did well to be in play-off reckoning.
Crunch clash: Broncos, Round 21
Prediction: 11th, 20 points
South Sydney Rabbitohs, 18 points
Run home: Dragons (a), Eels (h), Raiders (a), Cowboys (h), Broncos (a), Knights (a)
How they’ll go: Disappointing end to a disappointing season.
Crunch clash: v Dragons, Round 21
Prediction: 12th, 20 points
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