I'm back kids. It's been terribly hot and I've been terribly busy with my proper job, hence the lack of updates.
I figure I'd better have my two bob's worth on the Cricket World Cup, which started yesterday on the subcontinent.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's already under way, India's Virenda Sehwag has already pulverised some attack and people are already complaining that the tournament is too long and involves too many minnows after Kenya were rolled for 69 by New Zealand first up.
Group A
Australia, Canada, Kenya, New Zealand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe.
This looks to be the more closed of the two seven-team groups, with defending champions Australia, perennial semi-finallists New Zealand, enigmatic Pakistan and heavyweights Sri Lanka likely to progress. However, Pakistan are the best major nation in world cricket at getting embarrassed on this stage (see v Bangladesh, 1999 or Ireland, 2007), which could leave the door open for Kenya or Zimbabwe to sneak into the knock-out phase. Canada don't have a hope. Sorry, land of the maple leafers.
Australia
Why they can win it: Have the pedigree (made the last four finals, winning the past three). If their ultra-quick bowling attack of Brett Lee, Mitchell Johnson and Shaun Tait fire, they will be unstoppable. Good top-order combination in Watson, Haddin and Ponting who can all pile on the runs. Batting depth (Johnson, a Test centurion, will bat at nine, Lee at 10).
Why they can't: Shaky middle order, especially without Mike Hussey. Bowling will be a bit one-paced if the three firebrands don't click. Specialist spinner (Jason Krezja) who is untested in this format, especially at this level. No McGrath, Gilchrist, Hayden, Warne, Waugh-esque players who are proven greats of the game, bar Ponting, who had a miserable summer.
Predicted finish: Semi-finals.
Canada
Why they can win it: They can't. Sorry.
Why they can't: They're Canada and this ain't ice hockey. Or Canadian Football.
Predicted finish: Last in group.
Kenya
Why they can win it: Shocked the world by making the semis in 2003. If you get that far, ANYTHING can happen. Unless you're Canada.
Why they can't: Got rolled by 69 by New Zealand.
Predicted finish: Sixth in group.
New Zealand
Why they can win it: They're due. They have an amazing record of making the final four, only to slip up. Brendon McCullum is as dangerous a batsman as is going around, while they have a balanced bowling line-up. They are also the thinking man's cricket nation and will come up with some out-there strategies to take advantage of the conditions and powerplays.
Why they can't: Lack the class of the tournament heavyweights. The likes of Martin Guptill, Jacob Oram and Hamish Bennett (Kenya's destroyer) are handy, but will have to be at their very best when the sudden-death phase starts.
Predicted finish: Quarter-finals.
Pakistan
Why they can win it: Always volatile, the Pakis are one of international cricket's enigmas. You never know which team will show up. When they get it right, as they did in 1992 (champions) and 1999 (finallists), they are as good as anyone. When they get it wrong (2007) they lose to Ireland and go home early.
Why they can't: Don't make me write it. Fine. Their preparation was in ruins after an influential trio (including their best two bowlers) were rubbed out for spot-fixing. Never a good way to go into the biggest tournament of the 50-over game.
Predicted finish: Quarter-finals.
Sri Lanka
Why they can win it: Great batting depth (Sangakarra, Dilshan, Jayawardene). Beautifully balanced bowling (Murali, Mendis, Mathews, Malinga, Perera, Fernando). Last-start runners-up, 1996 champions.
Why they can't: Those Indians can play a bit too.
Predicted finish: Champions.
Zimbabwe
Why they can win it: Just starting to get their shit together after some silly, race-related selection instability. Still have some talented cricketers, although plenty more bailed on the Mugabe regime before things got too hectic.
Why they can't: Don't have the class of the 1999 side, which finished just out of the semi-finals.
Predicted finish: Fifth in group.
Tomorrow: Group B (Bangladesh, England, India, Ireland, Netherlands, South Africa, West Indies).
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